AI 能否回答 3 兆美元營收問題以支付晶片費用？
紅杉的 david cahn 估計，ai 產業需要 3 兆美元的營收來證明 2026 年預計的基礎設施支出是合理的。不斷下跌的代幣價格和更便宜的模型使得這一回報變得越來越困難。
sequoia's david cahn updated his analysis on ai infrastructure spend, projecting that the industry must earn $3 trillion to cover the $1.5 trillion capex for chips and data centers expected by 2026. this required revenue per gigawatt has risen due to memory costs and bottlenecks, with current leaders like openai and anthropic falling short of the necessary volume. apollo chief economist torsten slok highlighted risks to this payback, noting that hyperscalers predict cash flow accelerations by 2028 but face headwinds from cheaper open-weight models and rapidly declining token prices. slok warns that failure to meet these revenue targets could tip the economy into recession and force an s&p 500 correction, as the entire market rally currently depends on these few companies.