AI가 칩값을 감당할 $3T 매출이라는 물음에 답할 수 있을까?
Sequoia의 David Cahn은 2026년 예상 인프라 지출을 정당화하려면 AI 산업에 $3T(3조 달러)의 매출이 필요하다고 추산했다. 토큰 가격 하락과 저렴해지는 모델들이 이러한 투자 회수를 점점 더 어렵게 만들고 있다.
sequoia's david cahn updated his analysis on ai infrastructure spend, projecting that the industry must earn $3 trillion to cover the $1.5 trillion capex for chips and data centers expected by 2026. this required revenue per gigawatt has risen due to memory costs and bottlenecks, with current leaders like openai and anthropic falling short of the necessary volume. apollo chief economist torsten slok highlighted risks to this payback, noting that hyperscalers predict cash flow accelerations by 2028 but face headwinds from cheaper open-weight models and rapidly declining token prices. slok warns that failure to meet these revenue targets could tip the economy into recession and force an s&p 500 correction, as the entire market rally currently depends on these few companies.