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the decoder · June 20, 2026

Damodaran: an AI crash could hurt more than dot-com

nyu's damodaran warns the ai sector's debt-financed infrastructure creates risks worse than the dot-com bust, signaling potential societal damage.

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nyu finance professor aswath damodaran warns a potential ai market correction could inflict more damage than the dot-com bust because today's infrastructure investments are debt-financed and physical, unlike the capital-light dot-com era. he challenges the standard ai business model, arguing that compute-heavy usage prevents costs from dropping to zero, meaning growth with thin margins could destroy value, especially with low-price competitors like deepseek. damodaran also highlights a societal dilemma: if ai successfully replaces half of white-collar jobs to justify its valuation, it will impose 'insane costs' on society, while big tech companies risk building depreciating infrastructure that may become obsolete within five years.

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