ai experts underestimated field progress, study finds
top ai experts underestimated recent progress in benchmarks and adoption metrics, with ai hitting major milestones years ahead of forecasts. this affects how we understand ai's impact and future developments.
the forecasting research institute collected forecasts on ai progress from senior specialists, including 339 experts in the first round of the longitudinal expert ai panel. these experts, including computer scientists, industry experts, economists, and ai policy specialists, significantly underestimated recent progress in ai benchmarks and adoption metrics. for example, ai reached gold-medal level at the international mathematical olympiad in july 2025, five years before the median expert forecast and ten years before the median superforecaster forecast. additionally, ai may have solved a millennium prize problem, and its capabilities in virology and cybersecurity have likely surpassed expert forecasts. the study also found that economic forecasts were far too conservative, with anthropic's annualized revenue likely reaching $100 billion in september 2026, far exceeding the median forecasts.