Anthropic's economic model casts CEO's dire job forecasts as outlier

anthropic published an economic model with three scenarios for the us economy through 2030. in the modest scenario, ai's impact resembles the internet's, with slight gdp growth and stable wages. the extreme scenario shows output doubling every 4.5 years, knowledge worker unemployment hitting 17.9%, and labor's share of gdp falling from 60 to 45%. anthropic's ceo, amodei, warned in may 2025 that up to half of all entry-level office jobs could vanish by 2030 and unemployment could hit 10 to 20%, which aligns with the extreme scenario. this recasts the ceo's predictions as the most unlikely outcome.