anthropic paid off big for msft, but openai stumbled
microsoft booked a $3.2b gain from its anthropic stake in q4, while marking down openai by $600m. the divergent performance highlights the volatility of ai bets and the growing value of anthropic's cloud commitment.
microsoft's $5b bet on anthropic is yielding immediate returns, with the company recording a $3.2b gain in the fourth quarter tied to the ai lab's valuation and $30b azure commitment. this contrasted sharply with its openai holding, which suffered a $600m quarterly markdown, reducing eps by 7 cents. microsoft attributes the anthropic gain to the recent valuation step-up, while the openai dip reflects market adjustments. for the full fiscal year, openai remained a significant contributor with a $5b gain, signaling that while anthropic is rising, the openai relationship remains the bedrock of microsoft's ai strategy.